There are several empirical contradictions of the sharpelintnerblack slb model. Hundreds of papers and hundreds of factors attempt to explain the crosssection of expected returns. Forecasted earnings per share and the cross section of. The cross section of expected stock returns by jonathan.
Much of the predicted variation in expected returns is common to all three models, with pairwise correlations in their forecasts of 0. Seasonality in the crosssection of stock returns steven l. Two easily measured variables, size and booktomarket equity, combine to capture the crosssectional. The crosssection of expected stock returns 429 also possible, however, that beme just captures the unraveling regression toward the mean of irrational market whims about the prospects of firms. Difference of stock return distributions and the cross. Pdf this paper explores the ability of the capital asset pricing model. Earnings, retained earnings, and booktomarket in the. This paper was previously issued under the title timevarying inflation risk and the cross section of stock returns. The crosssection of expected stock returns eugene f. Sellside illiquidity and the crosssection of expected. This paper develops and estimates a heteroskedastic variant of campbells 1993.
Fama and french 1993 show that, when size is controlled for, market beta does not explain the crosssectional variation in returns for the 19631990 period. Given that so many papers have attempted to explain the same crosssection of expected returns, statistical inference should not be based on a single test perspective. Thus, they conclude that beta is neither a single relevant risk measure nor a subset of variables in a multivariate specification to explain crosssectional stock returns variations of. The crosssection of expected stock returns summary. Section ii documents that firms with high idiosyncratic volatility have very low average returns.
We then examine whether the crosssection of stock returns varies with beginningofperiod sentiment in the predicted manner. The cross section of expected holding period returns and. Second, we assume that in the long run expected returns and expected roe converge, or, stated di erently, a rms ability to generate pro ts over and above its cost of capital abnormal pro tability will be eroded by competition over time. First, small stocks and value stocks have higher durable consumption betas than big stocks and growth stocks. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make any economic or statistical sense to use the usual significance criteria for a newly discovered factor, e. Timevarying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns hui guoa research division federal reserve bank of st. Pdf the crosssection of expected stock returns semantic scholar. Two easily measured variables, size me and booktomarket equity. We use all nonfinancial firms in the intersection of a the nyse, amex, and nasdaq return files from the center for research in security prices. These forecasts mimic how an investor could, in real time, combine many firm characteristics to obtain a composite estimate of a stocks expected return. Worldwide, stocks with strong crash sensitivity deliver average returns of more than. Dd this positive relation persists after controlling for size, booktomarket, momentum, shortterm reversals, liquidity. The crosssection of volatility and expected returns. Crash sensitivity and the crosssection of expected stock.
Book value of equity consists of two main components that we expect contain di er. Szymanowska, and inflation risk and the cross section of stock returns, by fernando duarte. Basic characteristics of portfolios sorted by size. The crosssection of credit risk premia and equity returns. If the volatility of the market return is a systematic risk. The crosssection of expected stock returns fama, who teaches at the university of chicagos graduate school of business, and french, a professor at dartmouths tuck business school, wrote that beta or risk of a portfolio didnt explain returns, as. The crosssection of expected stock returns in brazil.
Whatever the underlying economic causes, our main result is straightfor ward. Earnings, retained earnings, and booktomarket in the cross section of expected returns abstract we delve into what causes the relation between booktomarket and the cross section of stock returns. The history of the cross section of stock returns wharton finance. Similarly, banz 1981 documents a size effect in stock returns. Another look at the crosssection of expected stock returns. Crsp monthly files, merged with accounting data from compustat thereby restricting the tests to 19642009. Investor sentiment and the crosssection of stock returns. Publication bias and the crosssection of stock returns. Schotman limburg institute of financial economics and cepr march 1, 2005. First, we crosssectionally estimate a price of risk for aggregate market volatility. Intuitively, if true returns are dispersed, then t.
Simply put, the returns on small stocks and value stocks are more procyclical, explaining their high average returns. French abstract two easily measured variables, size and booktomarket equity, combine to capture the crosssectional variation in average stock returns associated with market 3, size, leverage, booktomarket equity, and earningsprice ratios. Liquidity and idiosyncratic risk abstract the roles played by idiosyncratic risk and liquidity in determining stock returns have recently received a great deal of attention. Ball 1978 argues that ep is a catchall proxy for unnamed factors in expected returns. Stocks with relatively high low returns tend to have high low returns every year in the same calendar month. Ep is likely to be higher prices are lower relative to earnings for stocks with higher risks and expected returns, whatever the unnamed sources of risk.
A consumptionbased explanation of expected stock returns. Sellside illiquidity and the crosssection of expected stock returns abstract the demand for immediacy is likely to be stronger for sellers of securities than for buyers since investors are more likely to have a pressing need to raise cash than to exchange cash for securities. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make sense to use the usual criteria for establishing. The cross section of expected holding period returns and their. Difference of stock return distributions and the crosssection of expected stock returns. Consequently, the empirical evidence supporting the capital asset pricing theory is.
We capture the crash sensitivity of stocks by their lower tail dependence ltd with the market based on copulas. Appendix a shows the time series plots of the nine illiquidity proxies. The crosssection of expected stock returns 5 the fm slopes. However, recent empirical tests have not examined the interaction between these two factors. The cross section of expected stock returns abstract this paper studies the crosssectional properties of return forecasts derived from famamacbeth regressions. We use all nonfinancial firms in the intersection of a the nyse, amex, and nasdaq return files from the. More specifically, stocks with higher feps earn substantially higher future returns than do stocks with lower feps, even after controlling for the market risk, the size. It is this unknown risk factor that we have in mind when we classify particular. Our first method is to sort firmmonth observations according to the level of sentiment, first, and then the decile rank of a given firm characteristic, second. The crosssection of expected stock returns in brazil autoria. The cross section of expected stock returns tuck school of. The crosssection of expected stock returns econpapers.
Theoretical motivation when investment opportunities vary over time, the multifactor models of. Consistent with this hypothesis, assetintensity is a powerful predictor of stock returns. Pricing systematic volatility in the crosssection a. Information quality and the crosssection of expected returns. From july 1963 to december 2006, a lightquintileminusheavyquintile portfolio earns about 0. The cross section of expected stock returns revisited. The efficiency of the market portfolio implies that a expected returns on securities are a positive linear function of their market. Low r square in the cross section of expected returns. The expectations theory for stock returns and interest rates, as described informally by fama and schwert 1977, states that expected nominal stock returns equal the nominal treasury bill rate, plus a constant. October 2006 abstract this paper presents a new pattern in the crosssection of expected stock returns.
Low r square in the cross section of expected returns benito sanchez, ph. Pdf we examine the explanatory power of size and booktomarket bm in the crosssection of stock returns over various sample periods, especially for. This paper studies the crosssectional properties of return forecasts derived from famamacbeth regressions. Assetintensity and the crosssection of stock returns.
Consistent with structural models, we nd that rms equity returns and sharpe ratios increase with estimated credit risk premia and that the returns of buying. The crosssection of expected stock returns summary vu. These forecasts mimic how an investor could, in real time, combine many firm characteristics to get a composite estimate of a stocks expected return. Crosssection of expected stock returns 187 by handa, kothari, and wasley 1989 for size portfolios.
Crosssection of volatility and expected returns 261 of assets that may have different exposures to aggregate volatility and hence different average returns. Empirically, the forecasts vary substantially across stocks and have strong predictive power for actual returns. Highermoment liquidity risks and the crosssection of stock returns. Our goal is to provide guidance as to the appropriate significance level using a multiple testing framework. They find that two other variables, size market equity and booktomarket equity, combine to capture the crosssectional variation in average stock returns during the same period.
The history of the cross section of stock returns with the. In addition to the application of eba to more relevant data, this study explores several possible improvements to eba. Profiles files of balance sheet data, use a firms market equity and book value of. We use monthly stock returns between 1963 and 2001. A consumptionbased explanation of expected stock returns 541 higher than the eis. Crash sensitivity and the crosssection of expected stock returns abstract this paper examines whether investors receive compensation for holding crashsensitive stocks. Asset growth and the crosssection of stock returns 1611 returns up to 5 years beyond the sorting year. We provide a systematic study of how stochastic volatility is priced in the crosssection of expected stock returns. Firm characteristics, industry and time effects, and the. Crash aversion and the crosssection of expected stock. To gauge the robustness of our results across firm capitalization levels, we repeat our analysis across three sizegrouped portfolios small, medium, and large defined annually using the 30 thand 70 nyse market equity percentiles in june of.
Firm characteristics, industry and time effects, and the crosssection of expected stock returns rob bauer limburg institute of financial economics and abp investments borislav pavlov limburg institute of financial economics and abp investments peter c. The objective of this study is to investigate the crosssection of stock returns in the. Section ii examines the relation between bm and stock returns and. Forecasts based on longer histories of fm slopes work best and, statistically, are quite strongly related to subsequent annual returns. A new factor model consisting of the market factor, an investment factor, and a returnonequity factor is a good start to understanding the crosssection of expected stock returns. Additionally, as expected, small stocks have higher returns and higher volatility relative to large stocks. The capital asset pricing model developed by sharpe 1964, lintner 1964 and black 1972 stipulate that the expected return on a stock is determined by. An early indication that contributed capital and retained earnings contain di erent information about stock returns is. Crash aversion and the crosssection of expected stock returns worldwide abstract this paper examines whether investors receive compensation for holding stocks with a strong sensitivity to extreme market downturns in a sample covering forty countries.
If aggregate volatility is a risk factor that is orthogonal to existing risk factors, the sensitivity of stocks. Highermoment liquidity risks and the crosssection of. By contrast, the relation between contributed capital relative to market value and the cross section of returns is unclear ex ante. This paper studies the properties and predictive ability of return forecasts from famamacbeth crosssectional regressions. Gyorgy varga, ricardo brito abstract in this article, we have shown that the size characteristic of individual stocks is the most powerful variable for explaining average returns in brazil. Cross section of expected stock returns in ise levent akdeniz asl. Hundreds of papers and factors attempt to explain the crosssection of expected returns. Booktomarket, retained earnings, and earnings in the.